Why fish oil keep rising since April 2026?

Reasons for the Continued Surge in the International Refined Fish Oil Market in 2026

The core conclusion is that the price surge is primarily supply-driven, while Chinese factories are actively responding through capacity expansion and consolidation — yet overall supply remains tight.

1. Peru's Supply Crisis:Record-Low Quotas + Suspended Fishing

Peru is the world's largest fish oil supplier, and its output directly determines global prices. This year has been exceptionally severe:

1.1Historic low quota: Peru's first fishing season quota for 2026 was set at just 1.91 million metric tons, a 36.2% reduction from 2025—the lowest in a decade (excluding abnormal years).）

1.2 Weather disruptions: The ongoing El Niño effect has raised coastal water temperatures, reducing anchovy biomass and dispersing fish stocks, making fishing highly inefficient.

1.3 Indefinite ban: Due to excessive juvenile anchovy ratios (reaching as high as 51.6%) and severely lagging catch progress, Peruvian authorities announced an indefinite suspension of commercial anchovy fishing in the North-Central region in June 2026, with no resumption date set. This has effectively cut off the primary fish oil supply.

While a small-scale 251,000-ton quota fishery opened in the Southern region on June 15, it is expected to yield less than 9,000 tons of fish oil—a negligible drop in the bucket relative to the global shortfall.

1.4.Global Production Declining in Tandem: As a result, global fish oil production in March 2026 fell 12% year‑on‑year, with cumulative Q1 output down 12% as well. Recovery in Peruvian fish oil production remains nowhere in sight.

1.5 Other Producing Regions Cannot Fill the Gap

1.5.1 Chilean Reductions: Chile cut its 2026 anchovy quota by 44%. Moreover, the expansion of silver salmon farming will increase domestic fish oil consumption in Chile, further reducing its export availability.

1.5.2 Negligible Supplementary Supply: Although a small 251,000‑ton quota fishery opened in Southern Peru in June, it is expected to yield less than 9,000 tons of refined fish oil — a drop in the bucket relative to the global shortfall.

2.On the demand side, fish oil consumption remains robust:

2.1China's aquaculture and animal feed sectors continue to show growing demand.

2.2 The pharmaceutical industry has sustained strong demand for high-purity Omega-3 concentrates, with buyers willing to pay significant premiums.

In short, a sharp supply contraction (centered on Peru) combined with resilient demand has driven this year's historic price rally.

3.What's the China's Major Factory Supply Situation?Active Capacity Expansion, but Raw Material Shortages Persists.

Faced with tight global supply, Chinese fish oil processing plants are generally in two distinct situations:

3.1. Industry Leaders Are Aggressively Expanding Capacity with Full Order Books

3.1.1 Represented by Shengda Ocean in Zhoushan, Zhejiang, its subsidiaries are making major investment in capacity expansion:

Zhoushan Sinomega Company (a Shengda subsidiary) is investing RMB 254 million to build a marine bio‑industrial park. Its high‑purity Omega‑3 refined fish oil "orders are fully booked for this year," and it plans to add 5,500 tons of annual TG‑type fish oil production capacity.

3.1.2 Oil & Feed Processing Plant (another Shengda subsidiary) has invested RMB 20 million in a new workshop that has already begun trial production, raising its annual feedstock‑grade fish oil processing capacity from 6,000 tons to 10,000 tons — nearly doubling its output.

3.2 Downstream Users Are Stockpiling, but the Entire Industry Is Under Pressure

3.2.1 Large end‑users (such as the nutraceutical company Sirio Pharma Co.,LTD) have secured sufficient inventory through long‑term strategic partnerships and price‑lock agreements with overseas suppliers, ensuring they can fulfill orders.

3.2.2 However, this does not represent the whole industry. Sirio Pharma Co.,LTD has explicitly noted that "global fish oil supply is currently tight overall, with production capacity tightening in major producing regions driving raw material prices higher across the board — the entire industry is bearing cost pressures."

4.When Will Prices Ease?

Based on available information, no near-term relief is in sight. The market's full attention is fixed on when Peru will resume fishing—this is the single most critical variable.

Key milestones to watch:

4.1 Short-term (next 1–2 months): Prices will remain elevated or even climb further, as the indefinite ban in North-Central Peru has no end date, leaving supply constraints unresolved.

4.2 Medium-term (second half of 2026): A potential window for moderation exists, but hinges on two conditions

4.2.1 Weakening El Niño effects and improved oceanographic conditions, and

4.4.2 A favorable assessment from Peru's marine research institute (IMARPE), allowing a resumption of fishing in H2 2026—possibly with an increased quota. If these materialize, additional supply could relieve price pressure.

4.3 Long-term outlook

Even if fishing resumes in the latter half of the year, the structural trend toward tighter global fish oil supply may persist, as climate volatility and resource management constraints remain long-term factors.

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